Economists Revise Outlook Again

Yesterday it was Bernanke and today it is Carney revising their forecasts on the economic outlook.  I like both of these gentleman but given the size of their pay cheques and power over monetary policy - it would be nice if they were right much more often.  They both possess a nice vocabulary, nice clothes and high offices but they seem deft at communicating in common sense terms issues of money supply, debts, deficits, productivity, and the real labor market.  Could Bernanke in bold terms at least build a case for the consequences of Congress' intransigence in dealing with the nation's fifteen trillion dollar debt.

I just wrapped up "Aftershock" by Robert Weidemer and concur wholeheartedly with his premise that economists are living a life of privilege immune from challenging suppositions from credible alternative economic theorists.  It is not the radical thinker that achieves status among the Washington and Wall Street elite.  The notional world wide derivative book is still a potential time bomb four years after its role in the financial crisis. In fact, Ben was still touting the benefits of derivatives in non-financial industries yesterday in his address to Washington Senators.  There was once a time when non-financial industries simply relied upon insurance to mitigate against market risk but nowadays the derivative instrument becomes the win-win bargain chip which could become the lose-lose stimulant of our next phase of economic decline (the decline that none of these mainstream economists saw coming or were at least permitted to publicly prognosticate).

A Lesson in Persistence

Occasionally I'll head over to the PGA Tour website to check out some golf stats.  I have a feel for the players by catching the odd round of golf on a Sunday afternoon over at CBS Sports.  There are actually some decent announcers over there...and yes Gary McCord - I count you among them in spite of the Tour's cringing at your overzealous use of language especially when characterizing the greens.  Haven't heard from you in a while though.

Tonight I discover two examples of players who have persisted at the game over time in spite of very mediocre play as measured by the standard of a golf professional.  Ten Broeck sits atop the leaderboard at the U.S Senior Open tonight and here is the thing.  The guy is a caddie and not a golfer.  He knew he couldn't afford to make it golfing over the years so he caddied instead.  Now because of his passion for the game and practice when his golf bosses weren't looking, he is now poised to earn for a weekend's work more than double that that he's ever earned on a golf course during his best year as a caddie.

Then there is Dickey Pride.  At 42 years old he is having his best year on tour.  Twenty-five per cent of his career earnings (over one million dollars) have been earned this year alone.  At times during his career he missed more cuts than he made.  Imagine if he packed away his clubs for a new career at 40 succumbing to the pier and family pressure arising from lackluster annual earnings.  Imagine if he had walked off a fairway one day never to return because of one more wayward drive.  Imagine if he scorned himself off some next week's entry list because of placing dead last on a favored course.  Imagine if he heeded the wise council of those who thought he had no game.  I think you get the picture.

    

The Thing About Aging

…..is that belief systems lose their malleability.  The rigidity that arises turns people off because the opportunity for discourse is lost.  Not all aged people get trapped into the cyclone of absolutism but unfortunately most do.  When there’s little room to maneuver then a sense of suffocation pervades the theatre.  

Chris Evert is one classy lady but maybe it’s her age that had her fixated on certain victory for Serena Williams in the Wimbledon final today when commentating without giving sufficient chances to the higher seeded opponent.  A nice comeback by Radwanska in the second set almost had Evert looking like a homer.

Then there are the arrogant aged scientists that think they have a firm grasp on the universe’s composition only to be outdone by the younger generation’s propensity for broadening hypotheses.  Evidence of this “God Particle” as coined by media intelligentsia now has many a wise scientist doing back flips.

Learned veteran financial market analysts are habitually wrong about movements in the market but still continue to espouse their futurist forecasts with the glib of certainty that becomes amusing to those versed in their record.  

This sampling of intransigent thinking beckons the question of why more attention isn’t given to broadcasts of opinion more colored with humility and open to possibility bereft from the pragmatic.